International Migration 14 May

International migration statistics give the latest outcomes-based measure of migration, which includes estimates of migrants entering or leaving New Zealand.

Key facts

Annual migration
Annual migration by citizenship
Monthly migration
Migration with Australia – year ended September 2023
Latest revisions
Higher standard error for March 2024
Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

Annual migration

Provisional estimates for the March 2024 year compared with the March 2023 year were:

• migrant arrivals: 239,000 (± 3,300), up 39 percent
• migrant departures: 127,800 (± 2,200), up 31 percent
• annual net migration: gain of 111,100 (± 3,600), compared with a net gain of 74,600 (± 300).

The 127,800 migrant departures in the March 2024 year are, provisionally, the highest on record for an annual period.

Annual migrant arrivals provisionally peaked at 244,800 in the year ended December 2023.

Annual net migration provisionally peaked in the year ended October 2023, with a gain of 139,100.

The long-term average for March years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) is 119,000 migrant arrivals, 91,500 migrant departures, and 27,500 net migration.

Migrants are people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. A 12-month threshold is used to classify migrants from non-migrants, aligned with international guidelines on measuring migration.

Annual migration by citizenship

The provisional net migration gain of 111,100 in the March 2024 year was made up of a net gain of 163,600 non-New Zealand citizens, which more than offset a net migration loss of 52,500 New Zealand citizens.

For migrant arrivals in the March 2024 year, citizens of India were the largest group, with 49,800 (± 600) arrivals. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• Philippines: 31,900 (± 300)
• China: 26,800 (± 600)
• New Zealand: 25,800 (± 600)
• Fiji: 10,700 (± 300)
• South Africa: 7,800 (± 100)
• Sri Lanka: 6,900 (± 100)
• United Kingdom: 6,600 (± 300).

For migrant departures in the March 2024 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group, with 78,200 (± 1,600) departures. The next largest groups were citizens of:

• China: 8,100 (± 300)
• Australia: 5,000 (± 300)
• United Kingdom: 4,900 (± 100)
• India: 4,800 (± 200)
• United States: 3,100 (± 100).

Citizens of India, the Philippines, China, and Fiji drove net migration gains in the March 2024 year. Country of citizenship is the nationality of passport used to arrive in or depart from New Zealand and is not necessarily the country of previous or next residence.

For non-New Zealand citizens, the net migration gain of 163,600 in the March 2024 year compares with a net migration gain of 105,000 in the March 2023 year. It is also above the long-term average for March years (pre-COVID 2002-2019) of 47,600 a year.

The March 2024 year provisionally saw two annual records for New Zealand citizens:

• 78,200 migrant departures, exceeding the previous record (before 2024) of 72,400 in the February 2012 year
• net migration loss of 52,500, exceeding the previous record (before 2023−2024) of 44,400 in the February 2012 year.

The average annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 26,800 in the March years 2002-2013, and 6,800 in the March years 2014-2019.

Monthly migration

Provisional estimates for March 2024 compared with March 2023 were:

• migrant arrivals: 20,800 (± 2,800), down 17 percent
• migrant departures: 16,300 (± 1,800), up 98 percent
• monthly net migration: gain of 4,500 (± 3,000), compared with a net gain of 16,800 (± 200).

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration with Australia – year ended September 2023

There was a provisional net migration loss of 24,000 people to Australia in the year ended September 2023. This was made up of 18,200 migrant arrivals from Australia to New Zealand, and 42,200 migrant departures from New Zealand to Australia.

Traditionally, there has been a net migration loss from New Zealand to Australia. This averaged nearly 30,000 a year during 2004-2013, and about 3,000 a year during 2014-2019.

The provisional net migration loss to Australia in the year ended September 2023 was made up of a net loss of 23,700 New Zealand citizens, and a net loss of 300 non-New Zealand citizens. This compares with a net migration loss to Australia of 11,000 in the year ended September 2022, made up of a net loss of 9,800 New Zealand citizens and a net loss of 1,300 non-New Zealand citizens.

In the September 2023 year, 53 percent of New Zealand citizen migrant departures were to Australia.

Net migration loss to Australia in 2022 (published in July 2023 and based on provisional data to December 2022) has more information.

These net migration estimates draw on two Infoshare series (select ‘Tourism’, then ‘International Travel and Migration – ITM’):

• Estimated migrant arrivals by citizenship, visa type, and CLPR, 12/16-month rule (Quarterly) – this uses Stats NZ monthly estimates currently available to March 2024.
• Estimated migrant arrivals to Australia by CLPR, citizenship, and birthplace (Quarterly) – this uses Australian Bureau of Statistics quarterly estimates currently available to September 2023. Data for the December 2023 quarter will be available in mid-June 2024.

As the country of last previous residence (CLPR) of migrants arriving in New Zealand and Australia is not always known, an allowance for non-response to the CLPR question on both New Zealand and Australian arrival cards has been made.

Latest revisions

Migration estimates from December 2022 are provisional and subject to revision because it is not yet known whether some travellers are migrants or non-migrants.

Why migration estimates change has more information.

We encourage customers to make their own judgement on whether to use provisional migration estimates for the latest months, which have higher uncertainty, or provisional migration estimates for older months, which have lower uncertainty. Annual arrival and departure estimates are subject to notably less revision at five to six months after the reference period.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to March 2024 contains a history of published migration estimates and revisions.

This month, revisions to the preceding month (February 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 1,800 (7 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 800 (4 percent), and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months (February 2023 to January 2024).
• migrant departures down 800 (6 percent). The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,200 (16 percent), and revisions were all downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration down 1,000. The average revision size to the preceding month was 2,200, and revisions were all upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Text alternative for graphs Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-March 2024

This month, revisions to the preceding year (ended February 2024) were:

• migrant arrivals down 10,000 (4 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 2,800 (1 percent), and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months (year ended February 2023 to year ended January 2024).
• migrant departures down 2,500 (2 percent). The average revision size to the preceding year was 3,700 (3 percent), and revisions were generally downwards, over the previous 12 months.
• net migration down 7,400. The average revision size to the preceding year was 4,400, and revisions were generally upwards, over the previous 12 months.

Higher standard error for March 2024

Standard errors for the March 2024 provisional estimate are higher than usual. The standard errors reflect the model uncertainty, from the sampling method used to generate estimates, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

To incorporate changes in traveller behaviour over time, a rolling window of historic arrivals and departures, for which migrant status has been finalised, is used to train the model. Currently this is the 36-month (3-year) period from December 2019 to November 2022 inclusive, which straddles the COVID-19 pandemic period of restricted travel across New Zealand’s border.

The higher standard errors this month suggest that the training data is less representative of traveller behaviour than it was in previous months. We are continuing to monitor the effect of different training data on provisional migration periods and assessing the suitability of alternative training windows.

Resumption of seasonally adjusted and trend series

In October 2023, we resumed the publication of seasonally adjusted and trend series for international migration with the release of August 2023 data.

Methodology for bridging seasonally adjusted international travel and migration series impacted by COVID-19 has more information.

In March 2024, with the release of January 2024 data, a methodological change was made to cope with the impact of the pandemic. Seasonally adjusted and trend series up to February 2020 will no longer be revised, to avoid unintended revisions in the historical series caused by recent data.

Provisional migration estimates

Comparisons between the March 2024 and 2023 months and years use the latest provisional estimates for each period.

The provisional estimates have 95 percent confidence intervals (±) beside them – the wider the interval, the greater the uncertainty about the estimate. However, these intervals reflect the model uncertainty, not the extent of future revisions to provisional data.

Migration estimates in more recent months have greater uncertainty and are therefore subject to larger revisions than estimates for earlier periods.

Provisional migration estimates are revised each month until they are finalised after 16 months.

Migration data transformation has more information about the migration estimates, including the 12/16-month rule and a monthly summary of the number of border movements, the number requiring modelling as migrants or non-migrants, and the history of revisions to migration estimates.

Comparison of provisional and final migration estimates: August 2017 to March 2024 also has more information.

Why migration estimates change

The outcomes-based measure of migration with provisional and final estimates is the official way we measure migration in New Zealand.

International migration uses new official measure has more information.

To classify a border crossing as a migrant movement, we need to observe up to 16 months of travel history, and it takes 17 months before final migration estimates are available, using the 12/16-month rule.

To produce timely results, we use a statistical model to produce provisional migration estimates. As new data becomes available each month, the provisional migration model has more information about the border crossings it is trying to estimate. This causes shifts in the estimated number of migrant arrivals and migrant departures, and thus changes in the net migration estimates.

Early and provisional international travel data

International travel (provisional) is updated each week with provisional international travel statistics to facilitate analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on New Zealand’s inbound and outbound tourism sectors. This includes:

• weekly travel data for short-term overseas visitor and New Zealand-resident arrivals
• arrivals and departures data based solely on border crossings into and out of New Zealand
• stock estimates of visitors in New Zealand and New Zealand residents travelling overseas, based on arrivals and departures.

COVID-19 data portal also has summarised daily data.

Text alternative for Estimated migration by direction, monthly, November 2018-March 2024: Graphs show monthly revisions to provisional migrant arrivals, migrant departures, and net migration for each month from November 2018 to March 2024. The data is shown in three line graphs arranged one after the other vertically, starting with migrant arrivals (top), migrant departures (middle), and net migration (bottom). The vertical axis shows estimated number of migrants. Months are labelled on the horizontal axis.

More data

Use Infoshare to access time-series data for international travel and migration:

Subject category: Tourism
Group: International travel and migration – ITM

Definitions and metadata

International migration – DataInfo+ gives general methodology used to produce international travel and migration statistics.

International migration concepts – DataInfo+ gives definitions of terms used in this release.

Subnational short-term NZ-resident arrivals – DataInfo+ gives methodology for determining the New Zealand-location information in short-term New Zealand-resident arrival records.

Technical enquiries

Dave O’Donovan
03 964 8924
[email protected]

ISSN 2624-2702

Next release

International migration: April 2024 will be released on 12 June 2024.